the brilliantly leaping gazelle

This rather alarmist headline appeared in today’s Daily Express “Amber heat health alert for huge swathes of UK as warning of ‘risk of death’ issued”

“A worrying amber level heat-health alert has been issued for huge swathes of the UK as high temperatures continue leading to an increased ‘risk of mortality’ for some groups. According to the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), the prolonged warm weather could lead to “significant impacts” on the health and social care sector with an increase in “mortality” across the population “likely”. “

You see what they did there?

‘Likely’ is basically unlikely with one’s fingers crossed. It isn’t probable or any other expression conveying certitude. It’s guesswork, informed guesswork to be sure, but guesswork nonetheless.

It also struck me that in order to justify its own existence – and to avoid any budget cuts – the UKSHA hasto dress up basic common sense in the language of officialese as if the lower orders had never experienced hot weather before and were therefore utterly bereft as what they should do in these unprecedented times.

“The UKHSA warning continued saying indoor temperatures inside hospitals and care homes may exceed the threshold and impact on the ability of services to be delivered.” In other words ((IOW), nurses and care workers may become more knackered than normal. This may cause problems

“It also warned people being cared for in the community may be impacted and that the high temperatures could affect staffing levels as well as public transport.” IOW, the lower paid you are, the greater the chance you are to think ‘Fuck it, I’m sweating like a pig here, I’ll call in sick’

“These warnings mean minor impacts are possible across the health and care sector but there was still an “increased risk of mortality” amongst “vulnerable individuals” and “increased potential for indoor environments to become very warm”. IOW, the chances of anything we’ve said happening are small but be sensible. Drink water (not bleach) and open windows. That sort of thing.

“Significant impacts are expected across the health and social care sector due to the high temperatures, including: observed increase in mortality across the population likely, particularly in the 65+ age group or those with health conditions, but impacts may also be seen in younger age groups.” IOW, we’re hedging our bets here, but some age-groups are more likely than others to be affected.

I might put in a freedom of information request to the UKSHA asking them exactly how many deaths occurred following this stark warning, I mean there’s bound to be some.

As the government noted “During summer 2022, there were an estimated 2,985 (2,258 to 3,712) all-cause excess deaths associated with 5 heat episodes, the highest number in any given year.”

Again, you see what they did there? “All-cause excess deaths” means to me plenty of wriggle room with which to fudge the data.

I might put in a freedom of information request to the UKSHA asking them exactly how many deaths occurred following this stark warning, I mean there’s bound to be some. What and how many were the ‘significant impacts’ they cryptically alluded to and how ‘significant’ were they? No, thinking about it it, a far more sensible idea would be to contact the excellent ‘More or Less’ programme on Radio 4 to investigate. They love all this sort of thing.